Description
I have written a small tool for generating plots and tables about U.S. smartphone market share from the reports put out monthly by comScore, and the raw data file to use it on. These are for publication in my Smartphone Wars posts at Armed and Dangerous, and published so others can review my methods. More details on methodology after the charts.
Results
Here are the tabulations and plots up to Jun2012:
U.S. smartphone market share by platform
| OS | Dec 2009 | Jan 2010 | Feb 2010 | Mar 2010 | Apr 2010 | May 2010 | Jun 2010 | Jul 2010 | Aug 2010 | Sep 2010 | Oct 2010 | Nov 2010 | Dec 2010 | Jan 2011 | Feb 2011 | Mar 2011 | Apr 2011 | May 2011 | Jun 2011 | Jul 2011 | Aug 2011 | Sep 2011 | Oct 2011 | Nov 2011 | Dec 2011 | Jan 2012 | Feb 2012 | Mar 2012 | Apr 2012 | May 2012 | Jun 2012 |
| Android | 5.2 | 7.1 | 9.0 | 10.3 | 12.0 | 13.0 | 14.9 | 17.0 | 19.6 | 21.4 | 23.5 | 26.0 | 28.7 | 31.2 | 33.0 | 34.7 | 36.4 | 38.1 | 40.1 | 41.8 | 43.7 | 44.8 | 46.3 | 46.9 | 47.3 | 48.6 | 50.1 | 51.0 | 50.8 | 50.9 | 51.6 |
| RIM | 41.6 | 43.0 | 42.1 | 41.7 | 41.1 | 41.7 | 40.1 | 39.3 | 37.6 | 37.3 | 35.8 | 33.5 | 31.6 | 30.4 | 28.9 | 27.1 | 25.7 | 24.7 | 23.4 | 21.7 | 19.7 | 18.9 | 17.2 | 16.2 | 16.0 | 15.2 | 13.2 | 12.3 | 11.6 | 11.4 | 10.7 |
| Apple | 25.3 | 25.1 | 25.4 | 25.2 | 25.1 | 24.4 | 24.3 | 23.8 | 24.2 | 24.3 | 24.6 | 25.0 | 25.0 | 24.7 | 25.2 | 25.5 | 26.0 | 26.6 | 26.6 | 27.0 | 27.3 | 27.4 | 28.1 | 28.7 | 29.6 | 29.5 | 30.2 | 30.7 | 31.4 | 31.9 | 32.4 |
| MS | 18.0 | 15.7 | 15.1 | 14.4 | 14.0 | 13.2 | 12.8 | 11.8 | 10.8 | 9.9 | 9.7 | 9.0 | 8.4 | 8.0 | 7.7 | 7.5 | 6.7 | 5.8 | 5.8 | 5.7 | 5.7 | 5.6 | 5.4 | 5.2 | 4.7 | 4.4 | 3.9 | 3.9 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 3.8 |
| Smartphones | 39.4 | 42.7 | 45.4 | 46.8 | 48.1 | 49.1 | 49.9 | 53.4 | 55.7 | 58.7 | 60.7 | 61.5 | 63.2 | 65.8 | 69.5 | 72.5 | 74.6 | 76.8 | 78.5 | 82.2 | 84.5 | 87.4 | 90.0 | 91.4 | 97.9 | 101.3 | 104.3 | 106.3 | 107.3 | 110.0 | 110.3 |
U.S. smartphone market share by platform, change per month
| OS | Jan 2010 | Feb 2010 | Mar 2010 | Apr 2010 | May 2010 | Jun 2010 | Jul 2010 | Aug 2010 | Sep 2010 | Oct 2010 | Nov 2010 | Dec 2010 | Jan 2011 | Feb 2011 | Mar 2011 | Apr 2011 | May 2011 | Jun 2011 | Jul 2011 | Aug 2011 | Sep 2011 | Oct 2011 | Nov 2011 | Dec 2011 | Jan 2012 | Feb 2012 | Mar 2012 | Apr 2012 | May 2012 | Jun 2012 |
| Android | 1.90 | 1.90 | 1.30 | 1.70 | 1.00 | 1.90 | 2.10 | 2.60 | 1.80 | 2.10 | 2.50 | 2.70 | 2.50 | 1.80 | 1.70 | 1.70 | 1.70 | 2.00 | 1.70 | 1.90 | 1.10 | 1.50 | 0.60 | 0.40 | 1.30 | 1.50 | 0.90 | -0.20 | 0.10 | 0.70 |
| RIM | 1.40 | -0.90 | -0.40 | -0.60 | 0.60 | -1.60 | -0.80 | -1.70 | -0.30 | -1.50 | -2.30 | -1.90 | -1.20 | -1.50 | -1.80 | -1.40 | -1.00 | -1.30 | -1.70 | -2.00 | -0.80 | -1.70 | -1.00 | -0.20 | -0.80 | -2.00 | -0.90 | -0.70 | -0.20 | -0.70 |
| Apple | -0.20 | 0.30 | -0.20 | -0.10 | -0.70 | -0.10 | -0.50 | 0.40 | 0.10 | 0.30 | 0.40 | 0.00 | -0.30 | 0.50 | 0.30 | 0.50 | 0.60 | 0.00 | 0.40 | 0.30 | 0.10 | 0.70 | 0.60 | 0.90 | -0.10 | 0.70 | 0.50 | 0.70 | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| MS | -2.30 | -0.60 | -0.70 | -0.40 | -0.80 | -0.40 | -1.00 | -1.00 | -0.90 | -0.20 | -0.70 | -0.60 | -0.40 | -0.30 | -0.20 | -0.80 | -0.90 | 0.00 | -0.10 | 0.00 | -0.10 | -0.20 | -0.20 | -0.50 | -0.30 | -0.50 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0.00 | -0.20 |
| Smartphones | 3.30 | 2.70 | 1.40 | 1.30 | 1.00 | 0.80 | 3.50 | 2.30 | 3.00 | 2.00 | 0.80 | 1.70 | 2.60 | 3.70 | 3.00 | 2.10 | 2.20 | 1.70 | 3.70 | 2.30 | 2.90 | 2.60 | 1.40 | 6.50 | 3.40 | 3.00 | 2.00 | 1.00 | 2.70 | 0.30 |
U.S. smartphone userbase by platform
| OS | Dec 2009 | Jan 2010 | Feb 2010 | Mar 2010 | Apr 2010 | May 2010 | Jun 2010 | Jul 2010 | Aug 2010 | Sep 2010 | Oct 2010 | Nov 2010 | Dec 2010 | Jan 2011 | Feb 2011 | Mar 2011 | Apr 2011 | May 2011 | Jun 2011 | Jul 2011 | Aug 2011 | Sep 2011 | Oct 2011 | Nov 2011 | Dec 2011 | Jan 2012 | Feb 2012 | Mar 2012 | Apr 2012 | May 2012 | Jun 2012 |
| Android | 2.05 | 3.03 | 4.09 | 4.82 | 5.77 | 6.38 | 7.44 | 9.08 | 10.92 | 12.56 | 14.26 | 15.99 | 18.14 | 20.53 | 22.93 | 25.16 | 27.15 | 29.26 | 31.48 | 34.36 | 36.93 | 39.16 | 41.67 | 42.87 | 46.31 | 49.23 | 52.25 | 54.21 | 54.51 | 55.99 | 56.91 |
| RIM | 16.39 | 18.36 | 19.11 | 19.52 | 19.77 | 20.47 | 20.01 | 20.99 | 20.94 | 21.90 | 21.73 | 20.60 | 19.97 | 20.00 | 20.09 | 19.65 | 19.17 | 18.97 | 18.37 | 17.84 | 16.65 | 16.52 | 15.48 | 14.81 | 15.66 | 15.40 | 13.77 | 13.07 | 12.45 | 12.54 | 11.80 |
| Apple | 9.97 | 10.72 | 11.53 | 11.79 | 12.07 | 11.98 | 12.13 | 12.71 | 13.48 | 14.26 | 14.93 | 15.38 | 15.80 | 16.25 | 17.51 | 18.49 | 19.40 | 20.43 | 20.88 | 22.19 | 23.07 | 23.95 | 25.29 | 26.23 | 28.98 | 29.88 | 31.50 | 32.63 | 33.69 | 35.09 | 35.74 |
| MS | 7.09 | 6.70 | 6.86 | 6.74 | 6.73 | 6.48 | 6.39 | 6.30 | 6.02 | 5.81 | 5.89 | 5.54 | 5.31 | 5.26 | 5.35 | 5.44 | 5.00 | 4.45 | 4.55 | 4.69 | 4.82 | 4.89 | 4.86 | 4.75 | 4.60 | 4.46 | 4.07 | 4.15 | 4.29 | 4.40 | 4.19 |
| Total | 39.40 | 42.70 | 45.40 | 46.80 | 48.10 | 49.10 | 49.90 | 53.40 | 55.70 | 58.70 | 60.70 | 61.50 | 63.20 | 65.80 | 69.50 | 72.50 | 74.60 | 76.80 | 78.50 | 82.20 | 84.50 | 87.40 | 90.00 | 91.40 | 97.90 | 101.30 | 104.30 | 106.30 | 107.30 | 110.00 | 110.30 |
Change in U.S. smartphone userbase by platform, change per month
| OS | Jan 2010 | Feb 2010 | Mar 2010 | Apr 2010 | May 2010 | Jun 2010 | Jul 2010 | Aug 2010 | Sep 2010 | Oct 2010 | Nov 2010 | Dec 2010 | Jan 2011 | Feb 2011 | Mar 2011 | Apr 2011 | May 2011 | Jun 2011 | Jul 2011 | Aug 2011 | Sep 2011 | Oct 2011 | Nov 2011 | Dec 2011 | Jan 2012 | Feb 2012 | Mar 2012 | Apr 2012 | May 2012 | Jun 2012 |
| Android | 0.98 | 1.05 | 0.73 | 0.95 | 0.61 | 1.05 | 1.64 | 1.84 | 1.64 | 1.70 | 1.73 | 2.15 | 2.39 | 2.41 | 2.22 | 2.00 | 2.11 | 2.22 | 2.88 | 2.57 | 2.23 | 2.51 | 1.20 | 3.44 | 2.93 | 3.02 | 1.96 | 0.30 | 1.48 | 0.92 |
| RIM | 1.97 | 0.75 | 0.40 | 0.25 | 0.71 | -0.46 | 0.98 | -0.04 | 0.95 | -0.16 | -1.13 | -0.63 | 0.03 | 0.08 | -0.44 | -0.48 | -0.20 | -0.60 | -0.53 | -1.19 | -0.13 | -1.04 | -0.67 | 0.86 | -0.27 | -1.63 | -0.69 | -0.63 | 0.09 | -0.74 |
| Apple | 0.75 | 0.81 | 0.26 | 0.28 | -0.09 | 0.15 | 0.58 | 0.77 | 0.78 | 0.67 | 0.44 | 0.43 | 0.45 | 1.26 | 0.97 | 0.91 | 1.03 | 0.45 | 1.31 | 0.87 | 0.88 | 1.34 | 0.94 | 2.75 | 0.91 | 1.62 | 1.14 | 1.06 | 1.40 | 0.65 |
| MS | -0.39 | 0.15 | -0.12 | -0.01 | -0.25 | -0.09 | -0.09 | -0.29 | -0.20 | 0.08 | -0.35 | -0.23 | -0.04 | 0.09 | 0.09 | -0.44 | -0.54 | 0.10 | 0.13 | 0.13 | 0.08 | -0.03 | -0.11 | -0.15 | -0.14 | -0.39 | 0.08 | 0.15 | 0.11 | -0.21 |
| Total | 3.30 | 2.70 | 1.40 | 1.30 | 1.00 | 0.80 | 3.50 | 2.30 | 3.00 | 2.00 | 0.80 | 1.70 | 2.60 | 3.70 | 3.00 | 2.10 | 2.20 | 1.70 | 3.70 | 2.30 | 2.90 | 2.60 | 1.40 | 6.50 | 3.40 | 3.00 | 2.00 | 1.00 | 2.70 | 0.30 |
Projected Android market share
Methodology
The raw data for these charts is generated by comScore, a market-research outfit specializing in Internet-related technology and media markets. Their detail numbers are reserved for paying customers, but every month they issue a press release on "U.S. Mobile Subscriber Market Share" which seems to be about the most reliable numbers publicly available on the topic.
The comscore.dat file tabulates all their smartphone marketshare statistics from December 2009 to the last reporting period as of whenever I last updated this page - currently Jun2012, updated Aug 2012 .
The March 2010 market-share numbers were dropped from comScore's website by mistake; I requested and received them from a comScore press contact and gratefully acknowledge the company's assistance.
The Dec 2009 total smartphone userbase number is of doubtful provenance, though probably accurate if only by accident; it is very close to what linear regression from what the figures in the later reports would predict. Details are in the header comment of comscore.dat.
With the June 2011 data, comScore stopped reporting HP's share and began reporting Symbian's instead. In August 2011 HP terminated WebOS, so I've removed its trendline.
I asked what their 95% confidence intervals for these estimates but was told I could be provided with that technical information. It is not known to me whether or not paying customers are given the error bars on the measurements.
For a discussion of methodological issues with use of the comScore numbers in general and the projection of Android market share in particular, see The Smartphone Wars: More fun with statistics.
Downloads
comscore-report: the report generator
comscore.dat: the raw data file
Makefile: shows how to invoke the tool
index.html.in: m4 source for this page